Friday, July 3, 2009

Unlikely speculations

I have a slight problem following scenarios like Gloria will run for Pampanga’s second district so she can become Prime Minister or that she will declare martial law with the help of her PMA “mistahs.”

Too many things have to fall into place, for the premiership scenario…

1. She wins the congressional race
2. She becomes Speaker
3. The House and the Senate agree to a con-ass
4. Con-ass shifts to parliamentary system
5. New constitution is approved in plebescite

And most important of all:

6. After June 30, 2010, Gloria will no longer be president. At best, she will be just another member of the Lower House, and a neophyte at that. Meanwhile, the new president will be The President. He will give way to Rep. Gloria? One will have to assume the new president will not want a full 6-year term, will not do everything in his power to remain in office. In short, one will have to assume he is insane.

As to the martial law scenario with the help of her PMA class…

It will be a replay of history because Gloria’s generals will have to stay on past retirement. As a result, the promotions system will have a ceiling. And that will breed unrest among the officer corps. She and her generals will have to divide and conquer the corps through bribery and intimidation. But history has shown that those tactics have their limits, Gloria will not live forever. Neither will her core group of generals. Consequently, when the question of succession looms, the whole thing will fall apart.

What is the most likely scenario after June 30, 2010? Who knows? Desperate people do crazy things. But the best scenario is for Gloria to realize that there will be a lot of noise to bring her to justice but it’s going to be only noise. She will get away with it because that’s the way it is in this Enchanted Kingdom.

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