Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Mestizo martial law

Assuming there is some sort of martial law plan in the works, the bombings in Mindanao will justify a state of emergency. In Mindanao only. Mestizo martial law.

Mestizo martial law is all the administration needs to guarantee victory in 2010, winning votes always come from the usual suspects - ARMM and vicinity. Thus Martial law in that area will come in handy.

A mestizo martial law is easier to sell to the americans. The recent bombings might just convince the CIA’s Panetta that a declaration of a state of emergency is needed over there.

If the Americans do not object, then the idea is to make the declaration and get on with stopping the bombings.

In three months or less the bombings will stop and the state of emergency will be lifted. Now people in affected areas will say “that was not too bad. and it stopped the bombings.” Outsiders will agree. Filipinos who don’t live in ARMM or near it will judge the state of emergency on the results.

By March next year, if the presidential campaign is not going too well, there will be a resumption of the bombings. A state of emergency for ARMM and neighborhood will be reimposed. And this time around it will be easier to do. It stopped the bombings the first time around, right?

Mestizo martial law will be lifted after the election period.

Why a mestizo martial law rather than a full-blooded one?

It will reassure Filipinos, America, and the international community that the country remains democratic. The military will remain under the control of Malacanan, instead of the other way around, because military rule will be temporary and limited to ARMM and trouble areas.

That also means only a limited number of brass will be needed for this operation. The situation that occurred under Marcos, the necessity for a regime of hold-over generals which eventually led to discontent among the officer corps, will not be repeated.

There might be a few strategic hold-overs but it will not become widespread. And so the rest of the brass will still be at the mercy of a promotion system. Loyalty to the commander in chief will still be the norm. The chain of command will be left intact and in full compliance with the Constitution.

However, although mestizo martial will guarantee victory for the administration presidential candidate in 2010, there is no certainty that the new president will go along with “the plan” and step aside for Gloria.

Once the new president is sworn in, he becomes numero uno. He will be giving orders not taking them. So more likely than not, he will be the only Filipino smiling when all is said and done.


Dean Jorge Bocobo said...

I don't think we can say for sure who is behind these bombings. To suspect that the bombings are the Palace's handiwork is not entirely unjustified, but it is not a necessary assumption for your scenario to turn out to be true. But I don't believe the President is that desperate yet that she would willfully order the slaughter of innocent churhgoers and soldiers just to lay a predicate. Of course, she guaranteed the MILF would again resort to violence however with her volte face on MOA AD, so she does have blood on her hands.

A mestizo martial law such as you describe could be the ticket for her, but I'm not sure it would be enough to win the election next year, or that it would fool the Americans if the WERE doing the bombings. The CIA would know, or ought to know the difference.

I bet they do!

Dean Jorge Bocobo said...

As long as there are these desperate, ideological, history-reversing but futile insurgencies, like the MILF and the NPA, AUTOCRATS like Marcos and GMA will always seem preferable to a slim but decisive majority of Filipinos.

Like it or not!

manuelbuencamino said...


I should have been more clear. It doesn't matter who is doing it because she can use it to her advantage regardless who's behind it.

I think those bombings if they continue and worse, if they escalate, are grounds for declaring a state of emergency over there.

ARMM though will carry her candidate is only losing by a million votes or less.

Jun Bautista said...

If ever GMA goes to the extent of creating a scenario or exploiting one to justify martial law, I don't think she would risk that much only to hand over power to someone else to her detriment. The costs would simply be too big for her to get nothing out of it.

manuelbuencamino said...


That's why I think it will be a mestizo martial law, if she does it.

However, the risk is she might get double crossed by her handpicked successor. But that's a risk worth taking if that's the only option available.

Don't you think she would rather risk the election of her chosen one than see someone from the ranks of her political enemies win the presidency?

Dean Jorge Bocobo said...

It's hard to rule by proxy. So unless she goes for a compleat autocracy like Marcos, what she really wants is a successor with his or her own baggage to deal with enough that she can make a clean get-away. Remember that short of another people power type revolt (highly unlikely) any legal actions against her must go through the Ombudsman (and ought to!). But Mercy has 4 more years to go. So GMA only needs to get a President who won't pursue her with enough vigor that they have to go through the rear guard.

But of course you are right that she may exploit a situation that naturally arises, say thanks to MILF or Dulmatin. Here the scenario is a martial law declaration is upheld by the puppet HoRRP, perhaps long enough to discombobulate the elections.

Dean Jorge Bocobo said...

FOLKS, Read it and weep (the Commander in Chief Provision in the 1987 Constitution):Section 18. The President shall be the Commander-in-Chief of all armed forces of the Philippines and whenever it becomes necessary, he may call out such armed forces to prevent or suppress lawless violence, invasion or rebellion. In case of invasion or rebellion, when the public safety requires it, he may, for a period not exceeding sixty days, suspend the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus or place the Philippines or any part thereof under martial law. Within forty-eight hours from the proclamation of martial law or the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus, the President shall submit a report in person or in writing to the Congress. The Congress, voting jointly, by a vote of at least a majority of all its Members in regular or special session, may revoke such proclamation or suspension, which revocation shall not be set aside by the President. Upon the initiative of the President, the Congress may, in the same manner, extend such proclamation or suspension for a period to be determined by the Congress, if the invasion or rebellion shall persist and public safety requires it. The Congress, if not in session, shall, within twenty-four hours following such proclamation or suspension, convene in accordance with its rules without need of a call. The Supreme Court may review, in an appropriate proceeding filed by any citizen, the sufficiency of the factual basis of the proclamation of martial law or the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus or the extension thereof, and must promulgate its decision thereon within thirty days from its filing. A state of martial law does not suspend the operation of the Constitution, nor supplant the functioning of the civil courts or legislative assemblies, nor authorize the conferment of jurisdiction on military courts and agencies over civilians where civil courts are able to function, nor automatically suspend the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus. The suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall apply only to persons judicially charged for rebellion or offenses inherent in, or directly connected with, invasion. During the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus, any person thus arrested or detained shall be judicially charged within three days, otherwise he shall be released.

Jm Benavidez Estoque said...

I really don't think that our president is as bad as you think. Well... if we judge according to the perspective of morality... judging an action (as well as intentions by the doer) alone is still insufficient. We also needed to study the doer(the being) as a whole ... not only his/her negative sides... but also the positive sides.

One thing that I've observed to this country is that... people really don't know to trust the government.

If we always plant in our minds that our government is as evil like that... what will happen next?

We are a democratic country, and it means that the People and the Government must help each other.

Hindi yung nagtuturuan kung sino ang may mali at ang may kasalan... at lalo't hindi ang mag-isip ng masasamang bagay na hindi naman dapat pag-isipan.

Sa mga naipahayag nyo... maaaring tama rin kayo lalo't kung gano'n talaga kasakim ang pinuno natin... pero... kung iisipin atin... ano nga po ba ang bagay kung bakit nya balak gawin yon... sa pagpapayaman lamang ba? Marahil... mayroon pa syang magagandang plano (kahit papaano) para sa ating bansa na hindi pa natutupad "unfinished business" lalo't magtatapos na ang termino nya.

Naniniwala rin po kasi ako na kahit gaano man kasakim ang isang pinuno... ay mayroon din siyang nagawang nakakatulong kahit papaano.
Hindi ko na po siguro kailangang magbigay ng halimbawa.

Pasensya na po... pero... ang presidente natin ay hindi gano'n kasama (sa wari ko) sa iniisip nyo.

Maganda po yung site nyong ito...
Medyo politics ang dating!
More powers po sa site nyo. :)