MATHEMATICAL THEOREM: Anyone can get 100% mentions and TOP the SWS Presidential Survey ("Choose-3") yet get ZERO votes in the election. (Proof: Imagine a candidate named as the 2nd choice of 50% of the respondents and 3rd choice of the other 50%. Quod erap demonstrandum!).
I think it would be interesting if SWS would reveal HOW Noynoy Aquino got 60% of the mentions in its 3rd Quarter survey: in other words what percentage mentioned him as first, second or third on their list of names in answer to the main question posed by this survey:
"Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names."
This of course assumes that it would be the natural tendency of respondents to list down first on the list their actual preferred choice for president if the election were to be held then. In my earlier post on this topic, I was thinking about the second and third place mentions of respondents in order to explain why the percentage reported do not add up to 300% as they should: it is because SWS does not report names mentioned by less than 0.14 percent of the respondents. Now it turns out this is nearly half of the data in each quarterly survey, judging from the fact that for example this most recent survey adds up to 153% or so!
This does bring up another important point. In their Table of Results, SWS places dashes ("-") in the first nine runnings of the poll in the row for NOYNOY AQUINO. I think it would be interesting for SWS to reveal how Noynoy did in those previous polls, or was he NEVER mentioned in any of the polls since 2007. That hardly seems likely. But even if his numbers were less than 0.14 percent, they should report it, even if it reveals how sensitive to current events their poll actually is, like the funerals of Democracy's Icons.
I personally do not believe that Social Weather Stations is making any of this data up. However, the Public and even the Blogosphere has not yet wrapped their minds around this SWS survey. It's a tricky little gem of public opinion polling that seems to me built to generate headlines.
Statistics truly is the Science of Innuendo. Unless we can get "under the hood" and see what is really going on, there is plenty of mischief possible because public opinion polling has become a lucrative business, a genre of propaganda.