Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Prediction Markets and Electoral College Map


The Intrade Realtime Electoral Vote Predictor is looking pretty grim for the GOP's McCain-Palin ticket. No doubt the economic crisis has contributed a great deal to the widening lead of the Obama-Biden ticket. But despite perfervid and increasingly desperate help from blogosphere partisans choosing her was a serious blunder that is also alienating those good folks in the GOP who actually read newspapers and magazines for information -- and can name them. Now there are even suggestions from columnists at the National Review [sic!] that Ms. Palin do the GOP a favor and withdraw from the race, say, for personal reasons. (I suppose she could make the announcement during the upcoming debate with Joe Biden, that is, if the latter doesn't forget to press his MUTE button, often.)

For those who don't like the new-fangled prediction market polls like Intrade, there a number of interesting and highly analytical "poll of polls" including one of my favorites, Hominid Views, which also publishes a map that is scaled to the number of electoral votes each state casts (and therefore scales with the state population) instead of the usual geographic map. HV is calling the race for Barack Obama, 309 to 229, if it were held today based on the latest state polls.

13 comments:

HILLBLOGGER said...

Good job, Dean

EQ said...

October Surprise:McCain to drop Palin?

HILLBLOGGER said...

Bets are 16/1 he'll do it

HILLBLOGGER said...

Dean, You should've included this in your post: FOX NEWS SPIN OF ALL SPINS ON THE VOTE COUNT for a complete round-up!

Pedestrian Observer GB said...

It took a market nosedive for the electorates to finally come to their senses..... whew, I guess they can now see beyond the color of the skin.

I don't think Palin should step down but if she does the best one to replace her should be..... TINA FEY, after all she is a natural and really pleasantly funny unlike Palin.

Amadeo said...

et tu, Deanus..

Glad you are out there and far from the voting booths. Or have you mailed your vote-by-mail request?

If you must, vote in California, 'cause that's one of our giveway states. HiHiHi.

DJB Rizalist said...

Ohio, Amadeo!

HILLBLOGGER said...

Rolling Stone on John McCain: Make-Believe Maverick

Dean,

Have you read latest story on John McCain in the Rolling Stone? The story of the life and career of John McCain revealing a disturbing record of recklessness and dishonesty.

HILLBLOGGER said...

Rolling Stone writes: Mad Dog Palin


Sarah Palin is a symbol of everything that is wrong with the modern United States. As a representative of our political system, she's a new low in reptilian villainy, the ultimate cynical masterwork of puppeteers like Karl Rove. But more than that, she is a horrifying symbol of how little we ask for in return for the total surrender of our political power. Not only is Sarah Palin a fraud, she's the tawdriest, most half-assed fraud imaginable, 20 floors below the lowest common denominator, a character too dumb even for daytime TV — and this country is going to eat her up, cheering her every step of the way. All because most Americans no longer have the energy to do anything but lie back and allow ourselves to be jacked off by the calculating thieves who run this grasping consumer paradise we call a nation.

DJB Rizalist said...

There's a lot of anger out there, but I guess the bus with everyone in it is at the cliff's precipice. Barack will need every ounce of cool to pull it all back, assuming it's still there on January 20.

Anonymous said...

Master move, kick Palin out, put in Condi Rice.

DJB Rizalist said...

anon,
Condi woulda been my choice!

Amadeo said...

Dean:

Uh, oh. Ohio one of the battleground states.

Hope it's not in Franklin or Montgomery counties.