Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Pundits, Surveys Call New Hampshire Wrong As Hillary Wins

Hillary Survives Obama in New Hampshire 39% to 37%; McCain Wins over Mitt Romney 37% to 32%

Saying "Thank you!" no less than 12 times to begin her victory speech, Hillary Rodham Clinton looked refreshed and relieved after winning a close victory in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, having "found her own voice" after shedding tears, convincingly, on national TV. A much vaunted party machine turned out the traditional political forces of the Democratic Party in Nashua and Manchester to deliver a close victory 39% to 37%. Andrew Sullivan is taking his penance well. Michelle Malkin: "Meoww!"

Perspective: the number of voters in Makati City exceeds the number of voters in each of the New Hampshire Primaries.

An interesting sidelight has American television pundits wondering how the public opinion polls could've gotten the Democratic race wrong, after predicting a double digit win by Barack Obama. Speaking as if HE had won, Barack Obama was first to graciously concede and asked a cheering crowd at Obama HQ to give Hillary Rodham Clinton a round of applause for taking New Hampshire. But tonight the spotlight is on her, contrary to almost all
public opinion polls and political pundits who called the New Hampshire primary for Sen. Barack Obama by as much as ten points. I noticed some or all of these were "telephone polls" with up to 1700 respondents. Well perhaps there is something to be said for the old fashioned face to face interviews still used by SWS and Pulse Asia in the Philippines.



Dave said...

Am sticking with previous prediction(s) Dean. D's go to the wire in a two-man catfight. Rs go to a brokered convention.

By the way, in Texas where such things count and especially in the Permian Basin where they really count, "Dubya" is what George W has been called since Jr High School Days. It is an honorific and is in no way derisive.

manuelbuencamino said...

Romney versus McCain. Fanatic versus lunatic.

john marzan said...

why is romney a fanatic, manuel?

as for the Democratic primary, here's the short version of what happened.

Hillary cried, Barack Died.

manuelbuencamino said...


Hillary cried, Barack Died.

Good one!

DJB Rizalist said...


Do you think that whoever of the two wins, the other will run as VEEP? Would Barack run with Hillary, do you think?

If not, people have to wonder who of the two is more winnable against McCain or Romney.



That's my prediction... Hllary -Obama tandem (Edwards has so alienated Hillary but won't bet my bottom dollar just yet...)

DJB Rizalist said...

it's probably the only way EITHER of them can win. else it'll the Democrats' 1912.

RR said...

Obama, Hillary or Edwards. It does not matter. The republicans will win.

There will be no PI presidential elections in 2010. Gloria will remain in Malacanang.

MB and DJB will agree on PI politics and political personalities and DJB will continue to champion GMA as a comeback kid!

Amadeo said...

The media collectively they go for sensationalizing news, treating these little caucuses and primaries like D-Day with their embeds staking out territory for weeks on end. Can’t blame them, it’s a ratings war after all. And they do hold sway in creating public perception even as far away as the Far East.

And the actual nominating process, especially for the Democrats, maybe very predictable. Thus, in its rather quirky way of nominating their candidates Democrats go to the national convention with about 800 delegates, yes delegates determine the vote not popular voters, uncommitted, even after all the hullabaloo of caucuses and primaries. And it takes a little over 2,000 votes to get the nomination. And you can bet the “administration” candidate garners a very big chunk of those uncommitted.

So who is the DC outsider and who is the insider?