Wednesday, March 7, 2007

FYI: 2007 Senate Race February SWS Survey

he Social Weather Stations February 24-27 voter preference survey for Senator in the May 2007 elections has been posted on their website:
1Pangilinan, Francis.56%
2Legarda, Loren54%
3Villar, Manuel Jr52%
4-5Cayetano, Alan Peter43%
4-5Lacson, Panfilo43%
6-7Escudero, Chiz37%
6-7Recto, Ralph37%
6-7Sotto, Vicente III31%
9-10Osmena, John30%
9-10Aquino, Noynoy30%
11-12Honasan, Gringo29%
11-12Arroyo, Joker28%
13Angara, Edgardo27%
14Pimentel, Koko26%
15Defensor, Mike21%
16Roco, Sonia M.19%
17Zubiri, Juan Miguel18%
18-19Gomez, Richard15%
18-19Montano, Cesar15%
20Magsaysay, Vic14%
21Coseteng, Nikki13%
22.Pichay, Butch12%
23Trillanes, Antonio12%
24Oreta, Tessie12%
25Singson, Chavit7%
1. The statistical margin of error is approximately plus or minus 3% based on the survey's random sample size of 1200 adults.

2. For the first time, Loren Legarda is not unequivocally ranked first in the survey (as I predicted last month), although she and Kiko Pangilinan are technically tied for first based on the statistical margin of error. Kiko Pangilinan has captured the first place ranking only because of the attention he's been getting from whether or not he is in or out of the Genuine Opposition. But this could change.

3. Manny Villar has a statistical claim on second place.

4. Alan Peter Cayetano is gaining quickly on these early leaders, compared to the January survey published by Pulse Asia, Inc. and seems destined to become a Senator that will give the First Gent and the administration a lot of headaches once he gets there. I'm going out on a limb to say that he could even top the Senate race as Loren continues to lose support, possibly from the fallout of Tony Leviste's murder rap.

5. Ping Lacson is likewise assured of a return to the Senate, and I predict an even stronger showing for him than is evident now. I thought he had the "strongest voice" among the speakers at the Genuine Opposition rally in Plaza Miranda. Like Cayetano, he could break into the Top 3.

6. Recto and Sotto are both intellectual cretins and are there only because of show biz power. The two actors, Cesar Montano and Richard Gomez would actually suit my tastes better, in either politics or entertainment.

7. John Osmena should be flushed down the toilet, but he's probably still in, though Noynoy should overtake him in the next survey.

8. Gringo Honasan, despite being under arrest for his role in the Oakwood Mutiny is also probably going to make it now, though I'd rather see Antonio Trillanes in his stead. Considering the latter's circumstances, it is remarkable that he is tied with Butch Pichay, whom I am glad WON'T be making it to the Senate which he has been trying to abolish with that harebrained chacha scheme of theirs.

9. I am glad that Joker Arroyo will be battling Ed Angara, Koko Pimentel, Mike Defensor, and even Sonia Roco for the 12th and last spot. He may yet be shown the exit door, now that he doesn't have Jojo Binay to help him win an election.

10. I've include #25 Chavit Singson, only to gloat over what his partner Joker Arroyo is facing too: defeat at the polls! They can all be appointed with Davide to the UN and sent packing out of the country.

11. There is of course nothing fixed or final about these results. One dynamic that is very hard to gauge is how votes for candidates that will now be seen as having little chance of winning will be redistributed by the voters to the remaining contestants. Organization, as in the case of Angara can translate such votes into important margins needed for victory. And of course, there is still the deus ex machina kind of machinery...

Virgilio Garcillano may be getting frantic cell phone calls right now from Malacanang Palace.




Re: "10. I've include #25 Chavit Singson, only to gloat over what his partner Joker Arroyo is facing too: defeat at the polls! They can all be appointed with Davide to the UN and sent packing out of the country."

It seems that the qualifying specs for a person in Pinas so he/she gets appointed to the juciest of positions is to be a lawbreaker or at best someone who's been a balimbing. Either that or become a legislator (Nampuchang Gloria's Pinas talaga naman!)

So I won't be surprised at all that when those two moral dwarves (Singson and Joker) get waylaid by the voters, Gloria the master moral dwarf might just offer them envoy posts.

lateralus said...

Osmeña was actually number 3 during the January and February 2004 SWS surveys but he still lost big.

Let's wait til the "machinery" kicks in. SWS predicted the top 12 with their May 1-4 2004 survey to almost a T.

I tabulated the 2004 surveys on my blog. Just check them out if you're interested.