Friday, May 24, 2013

Comparison of the Final SWS Pre-Election Survey and the Official Tally






Strictly Speaking, the Social Weather Stations Survey of 2-3 May 2013--its Final Pre-election survey of 2400 randomly sampled registered voters--correctly predicted the final RANKING of only 3 out of the 33 Senatorial Candidates (though it correctly predicted the composition of the Magic 12). 

SWS
SURVEY

SWS
RANKING

HITS

COMELEC
RANKING

VOTES
FOR SENATOR

57

LEGARDA

0

POE

20147423

50

CAYETANO

0

LEGARDA

18482961

48

BINAY

0

CAYETANO

17408543

48

ESCUDERO

1

ESCUDERO

17332952

45

POE

0

BINAY

16645515

44

EJERCITO

0

ANGARA

15858995

44

VILLAR

0

AQUINO

15388992

43

PIMENTEL

1

PIMENTEL

14584612

41

AQUINO

0

TRILLANES

13995603

38

ANGARA

0

VILLAR

13696120

38

TRILLANES

0

EJERCITO

13552991

37

HONASAN

1

HONASAN

13070031

35

ENRILE

0

GORDON

12364091

33

JMAGSAYSAY

0

ZUBIRI

11707146

33

ZUBIRI

0

ENRILE

11419246

29

HONTIVEROS

0

MAGSAYSAY

11252335

27

GORDON

0

HONTIVEROS

10840047

25

MADRIGAL

0

HAGEDORN

8323835

16

HAGEDORN

0

VILLANUEVA

6868774

15

VILLANUEVA

0

MADRIGAL

6727877

14

MACEDA

0

MAGSAYSAY

5569077

13

MMAGSAYSAY

0

CASINO

4254245

11

COJUANGCO

0

MACEDA

3388936

9

CASINO

0

COJUANGCO

3091642

4

MONTANO

0

ALCANTARA

1227521

3

ALCANTARA

0

DELOS
REYES

1226470

3

DELOSREYES

0

BELGICA

1118829

3

DAVID

0

PENSON

1030107

2

PENSON

0

MONTANO

1029439

2

FALCONE

0

DAVID

1026096

2

LLASOS

0

SENERES

698440

2

BELGICA

0

LLASOS

695260

1

SENERES

0

FALCONE

659073

SWS
SURVEY of 2400 voters

2,3 May

HIT
RATIO

3/33

COMELEC
CANVAS #16

ACTUAL
VOTES WON

 

6 comments:

baycas said...

1/5

[“Raissa” KAREN DAVILA said, “were you surprised, nagulat ka ba sa resulta (ng eleksyon)?”]

RANGE REALITY
(A continuation to my Comment Nos. 5 and 5.1 here http://raissarobles.com/2013/05/15/my-15-minutes-as-a-tv-election-analyst/comment-page-1/#comment-105909 )

Based on the official Comelec count in the concluded senatorial race, both Pulse Asia and SWS “predicted” ALL the Top 12 names.

As mentioned, Pulse Asia had a more realistic range of movement of ranks/positions in its April 20-22 survey. Among the winners, the rise of POE and ANGARA (ASCEND) and the fall of ESCUDERO and VILLAR (DESCEND) were not expected. Among the non-winners, the rise of GORDON and the fall of MADRIGAL were likewise not expected.

However, when it comes to the exact No. 12 position, the Pulse Asia survey expected ZUBIRI and not Honasan.

Here, we will note that SWS “predicted” all the names that landed in exactly the Top 12. But, the thing is, SWS had a more or less fixed rank/position that its May 2-3 survey missed nine (9) candidates in the exact position as the official result of winners. Pulse Asia only missed four (4).

baycas said...

2/5

Fixed positions in the surveys will not necessarily predict the exact position in the final tabulation of votes. Ranges in ranks in a survey must be calculated and they are the ones to be considered. Strategists often take note of this range of movement in order to maintain or adjust a campaign strategy. To the moneyed, politicians find a quick fix in television ads (as will be presented later).

My list, the combined April 20-22 Pulse Asia and May 2-3 SWS surveys, “predicted” the Top 12 but missed four names in the exact position when the candidates were proclaimed winners based on their ranges of ranks (the 0.5 decimal number was rounded off to the nearest digit, e.g., Legarda’s 1-to-1.5 position was converted to 1-to-2 position; the same with all the rest having decimal numbers).

The combined surveys did not expect these significant* movements in position (ranges):

(a) Rise of winners POE and ANGARA, and non-winner GORDON, and

(b) Fall of winners VILLAR and EJERCITO, and non-winner MADRIGAL.

-----
*Significant movement – two or more places in ranking position

baycas said...

3/5

Of course the surveys would not be able to reflect the last phase of the election campaign and we definitely discounted a precise “prediction”. If I may offer some meaningful dynamics in the “last two minutes” of the campaign, these are:

1. POE and ANGARA are easily “inserted” into a majority UNA slate in a ballot. Poe’s reason is obvious and Susan Roces in Poe’s ad positively convinced a lot of voters; Angara was once VP of Erap and Miriam (Santiago) made a “command” performance in Angara’s ad.

2. GORDON is an easy “insert” in a majority Team PNoy slate. Track record clinched the shading of his oval in voters’ ballot and Gordon boast of this in his ad. Tant pis for Gordon for he wasn’t able to dislodge the twelfth winner despite junking of some Team PNoy members.

3. VILLAR’s longest running television campaign (more than a year?) took its toll in the end. Her daughter, now identified with Wowowillie Revillame, endorsed her. From “Hanepbuhay” to “Hanep Mommy” must have been negative to many...remembering the 2010 Willie and Manny ads in the past.

4. EJERCITO was a turnoff to Jinggoy’s fans when it was revealed he “dissed” Jinggoy’s offer to help in JV’s TV campaign ad. JV must have been thankful because Jinggoy had a cameo role in Jack Enrile’s ad.

5. MADRIGAL had a lackluster campaign in glaring contrast with the “Jajajajamby” she was known before. Juday must have been smiling…during the surveys and probably until now.

baycas said...

4/5

Expected outcome or not, what is telling in this 2013 senatorial election is that the campaign is actually a reality show which most Filipinos are fond of and the MSM or mainstream media took a large part in translating the campaign to solid votes or to negative result.

Loren took pains in ignoring the fact that her widely broadcast SALN controversy made an impact in her campaign that relegated her to the second spot in the senatorial winners. Media interviewers, the likes of Jessica Soho and Susan Enriquez, could not make her admit it.

And while the fair-skinned Poe could be phenomenal in her first outing as a politician…thanks, in part, to Carlitos Siguion-Reyna…we must never ignore the fact that the Vice-President’s daughter, who is a first-timer also, was not only WATCHed by millions of Filipinos on television in her TV commercials (never mind the television debates) but she was equally TOUCHed personally by millions of Filipinos during UNA’s traditional nationwide campaign sorties.

baycas said...

5/5

Looking back, while Grace Poe’s No. 1 win was SUPPOSED to be expected considering a Team PUNAy vote, political pundits probably “never saw it coming”. In contrast, the Filipinos who readily got connected with the Binay brand expected Nancy to win; much the same way the surveys “predicted”.

I think Team PUNAy vote was a mixed vote with ideology possibly ranging from trapoism and idealism.

For UNA, there is a lot to rejoice in the Nancy Binay first-five win because primarily her votes consist of pure UNA votes rather than a Grace Poe mixed vote. This will hopefully translate into votes for the Binay brand when May 2013 Presidential Election comes.

In hindsight, however, probably there is NO RANGE to speak of here because I believe there was NO idealism that was dangled when voters were “requested” to shade the oval in the ballot beside “5. BINAY, NANCY (UNA)”.

baycas said...

Oops...

That should have been:

"May 2016 Presidential Election".