Thursday, May 23, 2013

Did Comelec Use SWS Survey Results To Proclaim Winning Senators?

On May 2-3, 2013, the world renowned public opinion pollster, Social Weather Stations, conducted Random Sampling Survey as  SWS Final Pre-Election Survey for Senators. 

The main results of the SWS survey above can be seen in the following tables:

On May 13, 2013, some 39 million votes cast a total of 294,683,224 votes for one or more of 33 Senatorial Candidates, which was the TOTAL NUMBER OF VOTES canvassed by the Commission on Elections in its sixteenth and Comelec Final Official Canvas for Senators

One of the most serious accusations hurled against the Commission on Elections during the post-Election post mortem (still ongoing!) is that it actually used SURVEY RESULTS of the Social Weather Stations to decide on the RANKINGS of the candidates in the Senate Race.

In order to test the veracity of this allegation, I performed the following steps on the DATA that anyone can access from the above links to check my computations.

(1) I typed into an Excel File the SWS MEASURED STATISTIC published in the Final PreElection Survey linked above as a percentage of the 2400 respondents that indicated they would vote for a given senatorial candidate.  This data can only be READ MANUALLY from the JPEGS in the SWS detailed report, although I assume it can be had electronically at SWS Offices in Manila.

(2) The highest ranked candidate according to the SWS survey was Loren Legarda with 57%  so I NORMALIZED all the other values as a fraction of 57%.

(3)  From the Official Tally of the Comelec Canvas #16 (the last and final official canvass) I took the equivalent data for each of the 33 Senators and inserted them into the Excel File beside that of SWS. I also NORMALIZED all the data to the No.1 ranking Senator in the Comelec Canvas, who was Grace Poe with over 20 million votes, or 6.8% of the 294 million cast for senators.

I then plotted the two NORMALIZED CURVES for comparison.

No matter how I look at this plot, I cannot help but see an UNCANNY RELATIONSHIP

But I shall let you the readers of Philippine Commentary DECIDE. What do you think??


Here is the data used to make the plot above: 


. "POE, Grace"201474231LEGARDA571
. "LEGARDA, Loren"184829610.917385861CAYETANO500.877192982
. "CAYETANO, Alan"174085430.864058049BINAY480.842105263
. "ESCUDERO, Chiz"173329520.860306154ESCUDERO480.842105263
. "BINAY, Nancy"166455150.82618581POE450.789473684
. "ANGARA, Sonny"158589950.787147567EJERCITO440.771929825
. "AQUINO, Bam"153889920.763819373VILLAR440.771929825
. "PIMENTEL, Koko"145846120.723894664PIMENTEL430.754385965
. "TRILLANES, Sonny"139956030.694659709AQUINO410.719298246
. "VILLAR, Cynthia"136961200.679795128ANGARA380.666666667
. "EJERCITO, JV"135529910.672691043TRILLANES380.666666667
. "HONASAN, Gringo"130700310.648719739HONASAN370.649122807
. "GORDON, Dick"123640910.613681015ENRILE350.614035088
. "ZUBIRI, Migz"117071460.581074116JMAGSAYSAY330.578947368
. "ENRILE, Jack"114192460.566784447ZUBIRI330.578947368
. "MAGSAYSAY, Ramon"112523350.558499963HONTIVEROS290.50877193
. "HONTIVEROS, Risa"108400470.538036403GORDON270.473684211
. "HAGEDORN, Ed"83238350.413146386MADRIGAL250.438596491
. "VILLANUEVA, Eddie"68687740.340925686HAGEDORN160.280701754
. "MADRIGAL, Jamby"67278770.333932384VILLANUEVA150.263157895
. "MAGSAYSAY, Mitos"55690770.276416344MACEDA140.245614035
. "CASINO, Teddy"42542450.211155789MMAGSAYSAY130.228070175
. "MACEDA, Ernie"33889360.168206922COJUANGCO110.192982456
. "COJUANGCO, Tingting"30916420.15345099CASINO90.157894737
. "ALCANTARA, Samson"12275210.060926948MONTANO40.070175439
. "DELOS REYES, JC"12264700.060874783ALCANTARA30.052631579
. "BELGICA, Greco"11188290.055532114DELOSREYES30.052631579
. "PENSON, Dick"10301070.051128474DAVID30.052631579
. "MONTANO, Mon"10294390.051095319PENSON20.035087719
. "DAVID, Lito"10260960.050929392FALCONE20.035087719
. "SENERES, Christian"6984400.034666468LLASOS20.035087719
. "LLASOS, Marwil"6952600.034508632BELGICA20.035087719
. "FALCONE, Baldomero"6590730.032712521SENERES10.01754386

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