Tuesday, July 27, 2010

The Impunity of the Pro-Noynoy SWS Survey

HOW is it possible that, no matter that the current occupant in Malacanang is the son of Mama Cory and Papa Ninoy, he was able to get an amazing 88% trust rating amidst the HOCUS PCOS brand of poll fraud hoopla? According to the Social Weather Stations, Noynoy Aquino got "88% of adult Filipinos have much trust and 4% have little trust in Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III, for a very good net trust rating of +83." Why, that's even much higher than the peak satisfaction ratings of former President Corazon Aquino at around 72%, and Joseph Estrada who got 67% at his best rating. It is so unbelievable how Noynoy, a zero-zero-bill solon from Congress to Senate and thus, virtually with no public service achievement whatsoever, be able to top the survey ratings of the two former Presidents.

Consider that the late President Aquino came out of the euphoria of the 1986 EDSA "People Power" Revolution while President Erap won with the highest plurality margin in Philippine history. And below 80% and 70% were all they got. Consider as well that Noynoy has a host of issues a thousand times worse than his mother had when she first assumed the presidency. Just about the only criticism the pro-Marcos camp was well able to hurl at Cory was her "plain housewife" naivety, which was not to say that was uneducated because she did graduate with a degree in French. Noynoy, on the other hand, was beset with a host of unpalatable issues: SCTEx corruption, Hacienda Luisita massacre and failure to implement land reform, his 2005 vote against the playing of the "Hello Garci" wiretapped evidence of the 2004 poll fraud, and 'abnormal mind' issues.


The abnormal or autistic issue was particularly nasty and dogs him to this day. The camp of presidential candidate Manny Villar played a good part in exposing it but the Nacionalista Party was definitely not alone in making it a huge electoral issue. There have been whispers of the supposed abnormal or "abnoy" state of Noynoy, with The Daily Tribune's Demaree J. B. Raval advising the Liberal Party to stop making "a limp denial of the autism issue" as early as February this year.

When it became a full-blow issue several weeks later, no thanks to Villar, the issue sounded credible to many Filipinos because, after all, autism seems to run in the Aquino family as evidenced by Noynoy's nephew by sister Kris Aquino. So shocking, or nasty, were the abnoy stories that filled not the mainstream yellow media but the alternate media, such as the internet and SMS messaging, aside from the usual word-of-mouth whispers. Essentially, the stories included talks of the late Sen. Ninoy Aquino having brought his son to a psychiatrist in Boston; that Noynoy sought psychiatric help somewhere in Ateneo; and that he smokes marijuana, a supposed cure for autism. Nastier, detailed stories, such as one narrated in a video, tell of his supposed fits and weird behavior in Ateneo that included his hiding behind stacks of books not in the library but in the cafeteria and loudly ordering fellow students to keep quiet.

However, amidst the publicly made pressures for him to show his saneness or psychological capacity to seek the presidency, he had inexplicably and adamantly refused to undergo psychological testing --while virtually all the rest of the presidentiables were willing. The result is that a good number of people tag Noynoy as psychologically challenged. Noynoy's state of mind is such a hot item that the issue is all over the internet even up to this day.

I did a quick Google search with the key words [abnoy "noynoy aquino"] around two weeks ago and came up with 57,600 hits. I did the same with an English variant, [abnormal "noynoy aquino] and got 14,100 page results. Today, I decided to Google the same words and guess what? There's INCREASED interest, with the first key phrase earning an estimated 65,700 hits, representing around 14% increase; and for [abnormal "noynoy aquino], got 16,800, which reflects around 19% greater interest in the issue. Additionally, I also Google searched [autistic "noynoy aquino"] and came up with about 20,200 results.

In short, Noynoy's stubborn refusal to prove his mental health by not undergoing psychological test appears to have rendered him mentally challenged by default in the eyes of many. This means that no matter that a pro-Cory euphoria supposedly hit the Filipinos when she died in August last year, the event could not have sustained a sentiment favorable towards trusting Noynoy, the good-for-nothing-solon son of Cory.

In fact, it remains doubtful that the pro-Cory euphoria even effectively translated into an electoral vote for the psychologically-challenged-by-default son. Take note that Noynoy run against, among others, the still very popular Erap Estrada to whom Cory apologized in December 2009 for her role in the 2001 EDSA. In apparent respect and gratitude, Erap called on his legions of masa supporters to show respect for Cory when the latter died. Who's to exactly tell then that the Cory sympathizers following her death even liked Noynoy? I myself was in Cory's funeral but there was no way I voted Noynoy last presidential elections.

Improbable Statistics

I've warned of cheating prior to the May 10, 2010 elections because based on the Illegitimate President' shistory and litany of corruption scandals, it would be impossible for her to step down without a an evil scheme for self-presevation or self-interest. It would be natural of Arrobo to seek and forge an unholy deal with a ‘friendly’ presidentiable who would look after her when she steps down. Of the three candidates known or rumored to be the Illegitimate President's bet, I suspected it would be the obvious, administration candidate Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro. I was wrong.

Initially described as "refreshing" in terms of the speed of results, and even "orderly and honest" by the yellow media, the unraveling of what has been described as "automated Garci," in reference to the 2004 presidential poll fraud will begin with the gross mismatch between field pulse and AES statistics Comele gave to the "defeated" presidential candidates. Later on, the sheer statistical improbability of votes received by the presidentiables, losing and "winning," will strike the mind.

Without even considering the AES technicalities and legalities, it was actually the highly improbable election statistics given by Comelec triggered the initial suspicions that something was woefully not right with the automated polls. De los Reyes well illustrates this when he retracted his early concession to Benigno Simeon Cojuangco Aquino III upon learning that he only got a measly 11,894 votes in his hometown of Nasugbu, Batangas and a statistically impossible national total of some 44,240 votes. He says his hometown votes was "Too small even, considering the excitement my candidacy generated; [when] everyone get out to campaign."

On my part, how it dawned on me that the Filipino electorate had been conned by Gloria Arroyo's government into accepting a fraudulent AES "winner" was when early broadcast results on the night of May 10, 2010 showed Joseph Erap Estrada impossibly behind Aquino in the former's bailiwicks of TONDO and SAN JUAN CITY in Manila. It was beyond any objective comprehension how the deposed President could possibly lose in those areas that have through the years consistently been solid, if not die-hard, Erap turfs.

Sea of Masa People. Erap lost to Noynoy in Tondo???

When what is on the ground and compromised automation does not match, which do you believe? Pictures and actual sight of warm bodies say a thousand words and the "di malaglagan ng karayom" character of Estrada's rallies in the said spots, as in a good number of Pwersa ng Masa rallies and motorcades elsewhere in the country, defy the HOCUS PCOS results. Snapshots of rallies show the strength of some of the candidates and betray the apparent falsity of the Comelec figures.

In the case of Bro. Eddie's party, supporters early on claimed "under oath that in the precincts where they voted, the election results show a much lesser number of votes obtained by Bangon Pilipinas candidates than the actual number of votes cast in their favor." Moreover, the total votes the evangelist supposedly received was only 1.26 million votes. This, when during the Bangon Pilipinas Youth Rally in Luneta, crowd estimate was already placed at 1.2 million.

Bro. Eddie Youth Rally. Crowd estimate at around 1.2M. He got 1.26M TOTAL votes nationwide?

Simply Impossible

In a number of clustered precincts in Montalban, Rizal, the AES gave amazing results. Therein, Aquino generally got more or less 99.9% of all votes, with all the other presidentiables registering ZERO votes, with the DISQUALIFIED candidate, Acosta, garnering 2 or so votes.

There were also many clustered precincts in Dapitan City, Zamboanga del Norte and Gutalac where disqualified candidate Acosta received more votes than the other more popular candidates, including Estrada whom the Comelec says placed 2nd place to Aquino.

The incredible, statistically improbable pattern of Noynoy Aquino practically garnering all votes, with most of the other candidates even getting zero, is repeated in many clustered precincts in Sultan Kudarat. While there were precincts where Nacionalista Party standard-bearer Villar was able to get double digit votes, it was more a case of single digit, if not zero for him and all the other candidates, including Estrada and supposed administration candidate Teodoro.

Moreover, there were even instances when, similar to the Montalban areas, disqualified candidate Acosta got 1 or 2 votes while others like Erap and Madrigal got ZERO again. Madrigal, the feisty and nationalist-inclined former lawmaker, it should be noted, placed fourth during the 2004 senatorial elections, garnering some 13M votes. So amazingly unbelievable is the presidential tally in the Philippines' first automated polls, with Acosta receiving more votes than the combined figures of Madrigal, Perlas, and de los Reyes in the final AES nationwide tally.


Which brings us to the most serious issue against Noynoy's "presidency"--the credibility and legitimacy of the 2010 automated elections and, therefore, whether he has the mandate at all to occupy Malacanang.

Apart from the considerations of AES technicalities, perhaps the most convincing argument to believe that poll fraud did occur in the recent polls is the fact that the most beprincipled and most result-disinterested of the presidential candidates have cried HOCUS PCOS cheating and, moreover, embarked on a campaign to unmask the truth of the May 2010 elections. I refer to Sen. Jamby Madrigal, Mr. Nikki Perlas and Councilor Jc de los Reyes. These three honorable candidates have expressly admitted several times that they already consider themselves losers in the elections; yet, they are active in the campaign to inform the public of the illegality and failure of the AES that the Commission on Elections implemented. That is not to say that Bro. Eddie Villanueva, who is also part of the MIGHT e2010 coalition of 'truth seekers,' is not equally highly principled and even moral; however, because he has been described by some to be the real second-placer in the 2004 polls to FERNANDO POE JR, and NOT Gloria Arroyo, the former could have a greater interest in the results of the recent presidential race.

As for the technicalities of the AES, the evidence indicative of poll fraud is overwhelming. As the Global Pinoy Online News Crisis of Sovereignty series says, the fraud is but commonsensical. The separate reports of the Peoples' International Observers Mission*, the independent body of GFN 2010 Election Observers Team of Global Filipino Nation (GFN), a non-partisan international organization of offshore and onshore Filipinos, Sen. Aquilino Pimentel's statement on "his vote on the proclamation of the newly-elected President and Vice President at the Session Hall of the Batasang Pambansa on June 9, 2010."

PIOM Report

The Peoples' International Observers Mission—foreign delegates made up of academicians, lawyers, law students, journalists, social workers, union organizers, church workers--came to the country as poll observers. They documented specific fraud and violence cases in some of the country’s hot spot areas during the polls and are reported to have been 'shocked by fraud, irregularities, and violence.' Radhika Sainath from the United States said that "In 10 years of monitoring elections, I've never seen this level of irregularities and fraud that I witnessed on Monday."

GFN Report

The independent body of GFN foreign observers--foreign delegates made up of academicians, lawyers, law students, journalists, social workers, union organizers, church workers--also documented specific fraud and violence cases in some of the country’s hot spot areas during the polls. This group came up with a more comprehensive and in-depth report.

I. The election results transmitted from the precincts do not have digital signatures of the board of election inspectors.
II. The number of disenfranchised voters is sufficient to affect greatly the results of the elections.
III. The automated election system (AES) was implemented live without the appropriate field testing, and law-specified testing in actual elections.
IV. The source code review was not completed and initial findings were not addressed.
V. No audit was done on the AES prior to the elections. There was only a mandated random manual audit that, up to this writing, has not been completed.
VI. Several voter and security features were disabled prior to the elections.

Pimentel's Explanation

Even Sen. Aquilino Pimentel, who gave his "yes" vote to the June 9, 2010 proclamation of Noynoy Aquino as "President," faulted the automated polls for leaving "a long trail of deficiencies... [which] were mostly directly machine-generated, but, at least, on one occasion, the shortcoming was specifically man-made." He added a list of missteps taken by Comelec and/or Smartmatic. The former senator regrets the following points:

1) Denial of right to know whether ballot cast was counted

The AES system last May 10, 2010 gave voters no way of knowing whether

the PCOS counted their ballots. The paper trail that the Comelec earlier promised the lawmakers did not materialize.

2) Wrong dates recorded on the certificates of canvass

The wrong time and date stamped on some Election Returns (ERs) form a tell-tale sign of possible tampering or "that something was grievously wrong" with the PCOS machines that electronically tallied and transmitted the votes to the Joint Congressional National Canvass Center

(3) On-off sensors, clearly "something was basically wrong" with certain PCOS machines

Investigation of a compact flash (CF) card of Quezon City congresswoman Annie Susano revealed the on-and-off switching of the sensors, the devices that read the ballots during processing by the PCOS machines. In simple terms, the on-off switching indicates that "some votes were counted some of the time, while others were not counted most of the time."

4) Egregious error in the Initialization Message

Meant to alert the Senate that the server in its custody could already be activated, the initialization message "had a most glaring blunder," recording the Philippine voting population at 256,733,195 or about five times more than the true figure of 51 million. Pimentel expressed bewilderment at the use of the "factor of 'five'" by the PCOS, aggravated by the "unintelligible" explanation made by Cesar Flores, the Venezuelan Smartmatic official, during the Congressional hearing.

5) Flawed Certification of the PCOS machines

The certification issued by Comelec's Technical Evaluation Committee, which was basically based on the certification of the U.S.-based Systems Lab, Inc., called for the installation of 'compensating control' devices. Unfortunately, the compensating controls that were supposed to enable a 99.995% accuracy for the PCOS machine's were not installed, said the Philippine Computer Society.

6) Arbitrary removal of security safeguards

That the canvass reports transmitted from cities and provinces were no longer accompanied by digital signatures made the determination of the COCs' due execution and authenticity by the National Canvassing Board difficult.

7) Non-use or disabling of Ultra Violet lamps

The UV lamps in the PCOS machines were meant to spot spurious ballots even before they can be inserted into the machines but the Comelec disabled this feature. Apparently, this led to the procurement of portable UV lamps to the tune of P30 million; despite the huge cost, however, Comelec did not make its use obligatory, largely leading to its non-use.

8) Relaxation of original intent for mandatory UV ink use

RA 9369, or the law authorizing AES elections, requires the use of necessary safeguards to prevent spurious ballots. In an automated electoral system, the equivalent safeguard would be like the use of UV ink complemented by the UV reader in the PCOS machine. Thus, the disengagement of the UV lamps in the PCOS effected the high probability "that fake ballots were manufactured and used fraudulently and scrupulously is high."

9) Non-Audit of CF Cards

The Comelec was supposed to conduct manual audit for the positions of president, vice-president, congress member, governor, and mayor but failed to do so. This casts doubts on Comelec's sincerity and the automated polls' accuracy.

10) Non-compliance with "ladderized system" of transmission leading to legally infirm 'unofficial' results

The transmission of results is supposed to emanate from the a) PCOS in the precincts to the municipality/city consolidation and canvassing servers or MCCS;, then b)from the MCCS to the provincial/district consolidation and canvassing servers or PCCS; and c) from the PCCS to the servers of Comelec and Congressional National boards of Canvasser. This ladderized system was not followed, leading to improper consolidation of transmitted results at the election return (ER) level, from which the Comelec and PPCRV where surprisingly able to make their quick counts.

Final Forensic Report of Joint Canvassing Committee

Even the final forensic report of the Joint Congressional Canvassing Board on the PCOS machines inappropriately housed in the residence of a Smartmatic technician officially found defects and serious anomalies. The report's main points are: (1) the mismatch between the Comelec-published and the extracted hash codes; (2) absence of digital certificates in the PCOS contrary to Smartmatic's claim; the (3) the alarming presence of a secret "backdoor" to easily control PCOS operations; and (4) the CF cards in possession of Rep. Susano are authentic and duly issued by the polls body.

The authentication of Susano’s CF cards in a way validates Sen. Pimentel's report pointing to the defective ballot-reading sensors in at least a number of CF cards. As well, it also indicates the poll body's inability--deliberate or otherwise--to secure all its duly-issued CF cards. Together with the discovery of a backdoor control, absence of digital signature equivalent in the PCOS machines, and mismatched hash codes, the joint forensic report by itself already points to a very insecure AES system, even indicating a possible collusion between Comelec and Smartmatic.

Mind Boggling, but More

How mind-boggling that despite all these reports, Comelec seems to have gotten away with putting up an AES that is fundamentally defective and apparently designed to be fraudulent. It does not stop with the above four reports, however. News stories by local, non-mainstream media provide more evidence to the desecration of the people's will last May 10.

The Daily Tribune reports on the day after elections that: "In Angono, Rizal, amid reports of massive vote buying, voters will (sic) surprised to find out that in the ballots given to them, the name of the LP standard-bearer, Aquino had been already shaded." The massive disenfranchisement report by GFN is given real-life by color by the news report of how drivers eager to vote for their bets were disheartened by the demand of bus operators for drivers and transport workers not to miss even one minute of last May 10, despite the fact that Election Day was a declared a holiday. The disenfranchisement is most notable because it seems to have targeted the masa group given other reports of the names of registered squatters having been stricken off Comelec list.

An important revelation is reported by Pinoy Global Online News on the PCOS software in escrow with the Central Bank. In its interview of Nelson Celis, President of the Philippine Computer Society that assisted the IT Teams of the House, Senate and Comelec in the forensic investigation on the PCOS machines in Antipolo, the PCOS machines run programs that do not correspond to the official program in the Central Bank.

“Unelected and Illegal Government”

Perlas' scathing June 30, 2010 report entitled "Unelected and Illegal Government" sums up the evidence in the elite conspiracy for the May 10, 2010 massive fraud. He says that the subversion of Philippine democracy in the country's first automated poll fraud "dwarfs the manual cheating done by Commission on Elections (Comelec) Commissioner “Garci” in the 2004 presidential elections. He cites the many legal violations committed by the poll body, such as the dismantling of the PCOS UV security system; removal of the Voter Verification feature that should have presented a list verifying one's vote; absence of the public examination of the PCOS source code; Re-configuration of Compact Flash (CF) cards without proper oversight; and lack of clear accountability and inventory of millions of unused ballots.

He also cites highly suspicious activities conducted by Comelec, including the quiet sending of a total of 1600 CF cards and 160 "burners" that can give fraud operators the needed tools to tamper with poll results. Perlas also sketches the apparent modus operandi of fraud, based in part on Committee hearings, which are: the pre-programming of primary CF cards; pre-shading of ballots; interception of transmission; and collusion between Comelec officials and Smartmatic Technicians.

Interestingly, Perlas also explains the role of yellow media and fabricated surveys in conditioning the people into expecting "certain candidates to win." The mainstream media, including ABS CBN, Philippine Star, Philippine Daily Inquirer, and even, GMA7 reinforce this fabricated ideas through their lopsided and brainwashing reports. Even the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV) acted not as watchdog for the public but, rather, for the Comelec.

The defeated but beprincipled candidate also points to the legal transgressions committed by Congress owing to its inability to question the massive automated poll fraud. Worse, Congress took part in the crime by (1) failing to convene only a Joint Committee, instead of a Joint Session, to canvass the presidential and vice-presidential votes, and (2) canvassing electoral returns that contained no digital signatures. He asserts that the May 10 polls were actually invalid and void from the start, given the process's wanton violations of the law.

Sison's Pinky, Gloria and CIA Expose

There is more. A most explosive revelation from an unexpected source was yet to come. On June 7, 2010, Pinoy Weekly Online came out with an interview of Jose Maria Sison, consultant and former head of the National Democratic Front. Therein, Sison charged that the recent automated electoral exercise was rigged, with the poll "victory" of Noynoy Aquino already a done deal. He pointed to the collusion of the imperialist United States of America, Arroyo, and Pinky Aquino-Abellada, an elder sister of Noynoy, which was forged in a meeting held six weeks before the elections.

Pinky colluded w/ Gloria & CIA, says Sison
As expected, Pinky and the Aquino family denied the charge. What is worth noting is that the revelation came from someone the Yellows —the Aquino and the Arroyo families, among others-- were in tactical alliance with during the 2001 ouster of Estrada. The Arroyos and Aquinos cannot possibly just dismiss Sison as opportunist or what because they were unholy allies there in the undemocratic EDSA 2 coup against a genuinely elected and sitting President.

Desecrating Survey Research... in the name of the Yellows

So, therefore, to reiterate the highly unamusing bewilderment: how could a zero-accomplishment former congressman and senator plagued with HOCUS PCOS and abnoy/austistic labels, with no mass base of his own and who ranked only sixth out of 12 seats in the 2007 senatorial polls, possibly earn the trust of a whooping 88% of the electorate? Where did the SWS draw the simply astonishing survey results? From a HOCUS PCOS survey counterpart system?

I remember how I was sort of academically introduced into revering survey studies. Back in my college days at the University of the Philippines, I briefly attended a political science class of Prof. Felipe Miranda, now with Pulse Asia but said to be still a director of SWS. He discussed with near academic reverence the survey research process, ending it with the calling that 'next time [we] come across a survey study, we should hold it close to our heart' or something. Those words led me to revere poll studies for a long time as a science, as a tool to scientifically and honestly gauge public opinion. For a decade or so. Until the 2004 presidential polls.

In March of this year, ex-Sen. Francisco Kit Tatad reposted a 2004 article where he reveals how SWS and ABS-CBN screwed public perception of the presidential poll count by selecting Quick Count areas where Arroyo is strong and bypassing more those where the later Fernando Poe Jr. held sway. The devious intent was to set a trend that matched the SWS exit survey which showed Arroyo as the pre-electoral choice of Filipinos. In other words, the geographic distribution of the Quick Count was increased for Visayas, where Arroyo was leading, and decreased for the rest (National Capital Region, Luzon, and Mindanao).

The 2004 SWS pre-electoral survey at the national level and the exit poll for NCR both indicated Arroyo won. As official results later showed, Fernando Poe Jr. won in NCR but lost in the nationwide count. Apparently, SWS at least got its national figures right, with Arroyo having been proclaimed "President-elect" and later officially by Congress. However, the 2005 "Hello Garci" expose showing wiretapped evidence of Arroyo's collusion with Comelec and military and, indirectly, even congressional officials to manipulate the 2004 poll results effectively belie the accuracy of the SWS survey. Everyone now knows that FPJ was the rightful victor of the 2004 elections; Arroyo just cheated him. And so SWS was dead wrong on the presidential race. Wonder if SWS actually manipulated the results to make the Illegitimate appear winnable, not expecting the future Hello Garci expose on the Maguindanao portion of the ballot....

Former Sen. Madrigal has dubbed the May 10, 2010 elections as "automated Garci." Given the uncanny association, if not collusion, between the Arroyo government's holding of fraud-laden electoral exercises and survey firms, and amidst the anomalous, HOCUS-PCOS-indicative May 2010 AES, are we silly to simply accept the incredibly high 88% trust rating of Noynoy?

According to Perlas, the reason why he is not conceding despite his admission that he has lost his presidential bid is because he believes that the "accuracy and honesty of the country’s electoral process [lie at] the heart of the democratic exercise" and that "If there is to be a President in this country, he or she has to have the true mandate of the Filipino people." Noynoy Aquino, the possibly psychologically challenged, SCTEx- and Nantes-explosion-sullied, and definitively unaccomplished solon son of Ninoy and Cory does not even seem to have the genuine mandate of the Filipinos. How could he possibly have an 88% trust rating then?

If Cory, the mother, referred to by some as the "democracy icon" can only get 60% trust rating a few weeks before she died, how impossible and illogical is it for her incompetent solon of a son, who also happens to be dogged by serious mental health, corruption and even narco-politics issues, possibly score a much, much higher trust rating? Even if, for the sake of argument, the abnoy and HOCUS PCOS issues are stricken off him, it doesn't make sense that the presumed transfer of Cory's 60% trust ratings even gained 12% upon reaching Noynoy. Remember that the current yellow occupant of Malacanang scored zero accomplishment as congressman and senator; moreover he was definitely not considered of presidential timbre prior to his mother's death. What did SWS give the Filipino public this time? Another case of yellow impunity? A case of automated HOCUS PCOS SWS survey?


Posted by Jesusa Bernardo

References & more images @ SOBRIETY for the PHILIPPINES

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