Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Senator Trillanes, Sir!

The chart below combines the pre-election surveys conducted in February, March, April and May by Social Weather Stations, and the just released ABSCBN/Pulse Asia Day of Election Exit Poll. Neither pollster does such combining of the competition's data with its own, but it's interesting to see that they do seem to fit and thus give mutual confirmation.

Surprise! Mercy Abad (Trends TNS) appeared on ABSCBN News with Pulse Asia's Dr. Ana Marie Tabunda in order to discuss the results of the ABSCBN/Pulse Asia nationwide election exit poll with Tina Monson Palma. The results were announced Tuesday evening instead of Wednesday, to the chagrin and feeble complaints of Tonypet Albano (is his voice is getting squeakier?) During the show Dr. Tabunda mentioned that their "effective margin of error" was plus or minus 1.6% from which I deduce the sample size was 3906 out of 12000 targeted respondents, who actually completed questionnaires and were interviewed by Trend TNS field staff. I hope they won't have the same trouble they had in 2004 with non responsive respondents caught by the rains skewing the distribution of the exit poll sample (itself a beguiling possibility)

The big news of course is that the exit poll has detained Oakwood Mutineer and Navy Lt. Senior Grade Antonio Trillanes IV set to claim a Senate seat at NO. 9 in the Magic 12. In the graphic nearby, I've combined four data points from SWS (their Feb, Mar, Apr, and May1-3 polls) and added today's Pulse Asia exit poll data for each candidate. I've emphasized the curves of Trillanes and Juan Miguel Zubiri to show how they've apparently barged into the Magic 12, possibly for good, as shown by the exit poll.

Several novel legal, political and constitutional issues will probably arise as a result of a Trillanes victory and entry into the Senate. First of all, what happens to all those administrative and criminal cases brought against him in connection with the Oakwood Mutiny? Hasn't he effectively won acquittal by election to the Senate?

It has been four years since all that happened at Oakwood, yet the cases seem to be getting nowhere fast, while some of the finest fighting men ever trained by the Philippine Military Academy and West Point are languishing in jail, under detention for allegedly launching a coup d'etat in 2003 by capturing a floor or two of a Makati executive service hotel and holding a Press Conference at which they proceeded to accuse the Military top brass of corruption and malfeasance.

I hope Antonio Trillanes does win a Senate seat and this exit poll has made a valid prediction because I think there has never been a proper closure brought to all the issues and mysteries surrounding the Oakwood Mutiny, and it does not seem the military justice system, or even the Judiciary itself, is capable of dealing with the really substantial matter involved there: how to finally reform the Military so it becomes a professional, honorable fighting force for national defense, instead of being a "nest of coup plotters" waiting to withdraw support for the duly constituted authorities.

Philippine Commentary has been pleased to link to Trillanes website since he put it up before the start of the campaign. It seems he's been busy studying legislative issues involving corruption even beyond the realm of the Military (on which he wrote his Masters Thesis at the University of the Philippines). For example, asked on tv what he thought of the pork barrel, I thought he gave one of the most cogent positions in recommending an integrated national infrastructure program to which all pork barrel funds now being assigned to individual congressmen would then be allocated.

The meteoric rise of Migs Zubiri was acknowledged by Adel Tamano, who nonetheless managed to take a swipe at the rest of TU by saying Rep. Zubiri was the more palatable and saleable to the public, because of his environmental stands.

WHATS IN A NAME? It's a dirty rotten trick they've played on Alan Peter Cayetano over at Comelec. Ben Abalos, James Jimenez and the rest of that bunch of bum steer cowboys are really cruisin' for a bruisin' on this one from the Public (who I think deserve some early kudos for rejecting the likes of Virgilio Garcillano and Manny Pacquiao!). Dr. Tabunda said however that they treated respondent ballots the way Comelec threatens to treat ballots with just "Cayetano" written on it: spoilt! So it is quite possible that the Magic 12 will contain Alan Peter Cayetano depending on how those ballots are counted.

The Exit poll main results:


Exit Poll

1 Legarda, Loren 58.5%
2 Escudero, Chiz 53.3%
3 Villar, Manuel Jr 49.8%
4 Lacson, Panfilo 46.4%
5 Kiko Pangilinan 44.6%
6Aquino, Noynoy42.6%
7 Angara, Ed 41.1%
8 Arroyo, Joker 36.8%
9 Trillanes, Antonio 35.4%
10 Zubiri, Migs 34.9%
11 Honasan, Gringo 34.6%
12 Recto, Ralph 34.3%


john marzan said...

Surprise! Mercy Abad (Trends TNS) appeared on ABSCBN News with Pulse Asia's Dr. Ana Marie Tabunda in order to discuss the results of the ABSCBN/Pulse Asia nationwide election exit poll

Mercy Abad still with Pulse? Kaya pala galit ang TU at admin sa SWS at mas gusto nila ang Pulse. ;)

engineerOFW said...

If Filipinos voted as the Filipinos in the US had voted (MLQ3's blogsite has numbers), then coup-plotters Trillanes and Honasan will be "out" and Inang Guro Roco will be in.

Deany Bocobo said...

I mention this only because Mahar Managahas last week seemed to make a point of announcing the end of the relationship between SWS and Trends. I do believe the relationship with Pulse is also an old one.

Deany Bocobo said...

I like Sonia Roco's big brown eyes too, she SEEMS like someone you can trust. But I think people may be doing a sympathy vote here, and I am usually anxious about that. I myself know nothing about her, or her teacher skills. Inang Guro?

Jego said...

What's with the aversion with former coup plotters? George Washington was a coup plotter, so was Emilio Aguinaldo. Nelson Mandela was a terrorist coup plotter. So was Menachem Begin. And they won the Nobel Peace prize. ;-)

Marcus Aurelius said...

In Shogun there is a scene between Lord Toranaga & Blackthorne. They talk about the issue of rebellion against one's lord.

Toranaga said there is no excuse or forgiving it the rebelling underling is wrong-wrong, and wrong. Blackthorne noted the way to be a rebel and be right is to – win.

Of course, just because there are coup plotters who are now hailed as being good & just & all of that does not automatically confer justice on all coup plots.

bullsalv said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bullsalv said...

The sad reality of Filipino politics is they all are "crooked" (well the majority).

So when choosing who to be elected the best choice is the lesser of the evil (lol). People have to understand, unlike American politics, Filipino politics is primarily based on "who you know," "how much money you have," and "how effective you can show authority" (goons, gold, and guns). That is not to say that American politics is not about these factors, but Filipino tend to exploit this tactic much more.

What really upsets me are the politicians that run for elections just because they can, using popularity to sway voters in choosing them. you only need look at Filipino politicians and their prior careers to understand what I am talking about. That is not to say all actors, actresses, basketball players, and etcetera are bad, but many of them do not have the credentials to run properly and effectively.

To conclude, it is just really hard to be positive when it comes to Filipino government. Politician just inherently believe patronages and exploitation are apart of their job description. Just my two cents.

P.S. Nice blog by the way.

-Bullet Salvador