tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post7728699167194235634..comments2023-10-20T21:46:49.945+08:00Comments on Philippine Commentary: What Makes a Survey Scientific?Deany Bocobohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01443168826029321831noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-47305496637458446282007-12-24T05:48:00.000+08:002007-12-24T05:48:00.000+08:00STINKS!STINKS!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-40976018510407324762007-12-23T22:56:00.000+08:002007-12-23T22:56:00.000+08:00DURIAN!DURIAN!Deany Bocobohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01443168826029321831noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-821895016623130772007-12-23T21:18:00.000+08:002007-12-23T21:18:00.000+08:00BALIMBING!BALIMBING!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-9455232341867453382007-12-22T01:36:00.000+08:002007-12-22T01:36:00.000+08:00A noteworthy discussion on surveys.And if I may ad...A noteworthy discussion on surveys.<BR/><BR/>And if I may add, surveys done properly and impartially are good measures of people’s perceptions and preferences, which then become the facts for the day. But at the same time, the findings do not necessarily translate to specific or general truths. Because they are after all simply the perceptions and preferences of the sample tested.Amadeohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00040096079637569742noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-58861115788804961812007-12-21T20:32:00.000+08:002007-12-21T20:32:00.000+08:00gabby,jego,As gabby points out, every survey measu...gabby,jego,<BR/><BR/>As gabby points out, every survey measures subjective states of the respondents, and extrapolates to the entire population from the random sample. <BR/><BR/>The point I am raising is that certain types of survey questions are suited for scientific surveys because the question means more or less the same, simple and unequivocal thing to all respondents because it is related to a common subjective experience like deciding who they will vote for in an election.<BR/><BR/>However, if we ask about who we consider the most corrupt president, it's not so clear how each respondent may apprehend such a question. Also, there may be a sampling bias in that all possible respondents are more familiar with the current President. <BR/><BR/>The statistical error or variation that results from bad question design cannot possibly be measured by the standard margin of error, which depends entirely on the sample size alone.<BR/><BR/>Surveys of the second kind are like news reports that do not cross check or attempt to verify claims by a single source.Deany Bocobohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01443168826029321831noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-51514353775733083742007-12-21T18:02:00.000+08:002007-12-21T18:02:00.000+08:00thanks. i'm not sure about your response about sci...thanks. <BR/><BR/>i'm not sure about your response about scientific vs nonscientific.<BR/><BR/>i do heartily agree with your comments and some of your previous posts on certain questions, such as Hunger and (net) satisfaction ratings. Other examples are the 'happiness', 'valuation' and 'culture' questions in other surveys.<BR/><BR/>These are subjective questions which require interpretation and analysis. The problem with people with an agenda may hijack the figures and force them to tell a story that is sympathetic to their world view. The media needs to be aware of how to interpret these kinds of questions and answers, which is not as easy or straight forward as questions about income or prices.gbdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03011266801179689224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-28037777217694308332007-12-21T07:11:00.000+08:002007-12-21T07:11:00.000+08:00Gabby,All I am saying is that even if one conducts...Gabby,<BR/><BR/>All I am saying is that even if one conducts a survey in a scientific manner, its scientific value may be nil if the survey question is such that the validity of the survey will never be tested, ie falsified OR verified by some independent event or process. <BR/><BR/>Such event or process must be capable of deciding the question for the entire population, such as an election, not just another survey.<BR/><BR/>There is no free lunch in public opinion polls. they are not an omniscient oracle. there are real stringent scientific limits to their powers as statisticians. they are turning statistics into a genre of propaganda, a headline generating machine. <BR/><BR/>The main point here is you can't conduct a scientific survey on just any old survey question that comes to mind. MOST questions can't be reliably answered by the surveys, but that only INCREASES their entertainment value when they can be tantalizingly touted as being just as accurate as the voter preference polls. <BR/><BR/>Not all survey questions are created equal. Some fail the basic test of what constitutes a good survey question.Deany Bocobohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01443168826029321831noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-68317203599279979992007-12-20T10:06:00.000+08:002007-12-20T10:06:00.000+08:00How to test the the 'second type' of public opinio...How to test the the 'second type' of public opinion polls? Have SWS do the survey again using the same methodology used by Pulse, and using the same survey materials. If the results are the same, then that would validate the survey results scientifically. You can keep doing this and see if the results are the same.<BR/><BR/>This second type polls make an implicit prediction: that the results are the same with any random sample when using the same methodology. They can be tested by doing the survey again.Jegohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11806891595153451306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-14036048223828845122007-12-20T06:06:00.000+08:002007-12-20T06:06:00.000+08:00dear DJB,i need to understand your differentiation...dear DJB,<BR/><BR/>i need to understand your differentiation between scientific and unscientific surveys. if i understand, scientific surveys are surveys that (eventually) agree with some kind of test (like a voluntary election, which in itself is a survey too, or sales).<BR/><BR/>in this case, many surveys that sociologists and economists use aren't scientific. the FIES isn't. The U of michigan (i think is the institution) Survey of Consumer Sentiment isn't one either. The PSID isn't. So are the hordes of surveys regarding policy/program evaluation.<BR/><BR/>is this your opinion?gbdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03011266801179689224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-79475331239105438302007-12-18T23:34:00.000+08:002007-12-18T23:34:00.000+08:00DJB questions this survey and yet asks anyway, "Ho...DJB questions this survey and yet asks anyway, "How has GMA gotten away with so much and for so long?" which in some ways supports the results of the survey.<BR/><BR/>He gives several answers to the question. First, he argues that there is no alternative amongst the opposition. Doesn't DJB consider himself as one who opposes GMA? That is what I gather from the question above. And aren't there others like DJB? If so, then DJB's first point is questionable.<BR/><BR/>Finally, he argues that Filipinos are too busy making too much money overseas and that the opposition is merely sour-graping. Is DJB aware that most Filipinos are working to fill in jobs abroad? What happens if a global credit crunch and a depreciating dollar makes those jobs less lucrative?<BR/><BR/>Also, if you divide OCW earnings by the total number of OCWs (around 8 million) and assume that each OCW has to support five other people, then you are looking at around $25 a month per person, or $300 a year. At PhP45 to the dollar, that's PhP13,500 a year, or roughly a thousand pesos a month. And that's given the current exchange rate: what will happen if the dollar depreciates further? And that money will be spent in a country that has some of the highest costs for petrol, medicine, electricity, and other needs relative to income in the region. On top of that, petrol and food prices are increasing significantly worldwide and it appears that they will continue doing so in the long run.<BR/><BR/>Finally, the WB reported in the past that up to 50 percent of government revenues is lost to corruption: that money could have gone to public education, health care, military equipment, and so on. Just recently, it was reported that the WB wants to suspend loans to the country due to various anomalies, and the _Economist_ reports that government corruption is the main reason why the Philippine economy is not taking off. On top of that, it's likely that lots of red tape and a complex tax system is making it difficult not only for foreigners but even for locals to do business here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-45590175295515446872007-12-18T19:13:00.000+08:002007-12-18T19:13:00.000+08:00Simply put, the recent survey has no value. Sad t...Simply put, the recent survey has no value. Sad to say mass media plays on it as if it is the most important news. Rather than pursue leads and evidences on PGMA's and all the other politician's crimes, they rely on cheap propaganda ploys.<BR/><BR/>Had our mass media been NOT as it is, PGMA and the rest of our corrupt politicians would not have survived a bit.Sefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00125120283806070939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-90149594678829832832007-12-18T16:43:00.000+08:002007-12-18T16:43:00.000+08:00EDIT: convenient for them...EDIT: convenient for them...john marzanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08036820667908976630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-83470395975230280412007-12-18T16:37:00.000+08:002007-12-18T16:37:00.000+08:00i don't think the current opposition is all that b...i don't think the current opposition is all that bad. the anti-marcos groups were worse. marcos ruled for almost 20 years before the peoples got all worked up and ousted him.<BR/><BR/>i don't think the the current opposition is the problem vs arroyo. i don't think the leftists are the problem too. they were part of edsa dos hindi ba, and nobody told them then that their participation was unwelcome.<BR/><BR/>i think the real problem are the hypocrites who railed against corruption when it was convenient, and advocated people power when it was convenient.<BR/><BR/>victory has many fathers and defeat is an orphan, and i'm sad to know that you don't feel the same way about arroyo anymore and has criticized the very thing you supported back in 2001 and <A HREF="http://philippinecommentary.blogspot.com/2006/02/breaking-news-standoff-developing-at.html#comment-114096164308294187" REL="nofollow">feb</A> <A HREF="http://philippinecommentary.blogspot.com/2006/02/proclamation-1017-state-of-rebellion.html" REL="nofollow">2006</A>.john marzanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08036820667908976630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14974164.post-5740527721636042382007-12-18T13:14:00.000+08:002007-12-18T13:14:00.000+08:00It's the lack of a clear alternative that keeps GM...It's the lack of a clear alternative that keeps GMA in power. While columnist like de Quiros will simply say something to the effect of, "Let's oust her first, then worry about what to do afterwards," is not enough to send Filipinos back into the streets to rally against her. The fact that the opposition is so inept is another factor in her favor.<BR/><BR/>I agree with you that GMA has a ways to go before getting close to Marcos. That survey result only goes to show how short our collective historical memory is.Frederick Tomashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06778495910515608502noreply@blogger.com